Opta Sports have made predictions for the 10 Premier League matches that were postponed between March 20 to 22, including Chelsea’s clash with Manchester City.
The analytics company’s feature, Opta Predictor, estimates the probability of each match outcome factoring in each team’s offensive and defensive quality.
According to Opta, those qualities are based on four years of historic results, with more weighting given to their most recent results.
The model will take into account the quality of opposition that a team scores or concedes against and reward them accordingly.
And the prediction says Manchester City will have a bigger chance of beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
It predicts Chelsea will have 30% of winning, a 24% chance of a draw, while Manchester City are likely to win with a win probability of 46%.
46% – Reigning champions Manchester City had a 46% chance of beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, with the home side 16% less likely of winning than their visitors. Rivals. pic.twitter.com/0SNQjwf60d
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) March 20, 2020
It is not surprising as Manchester City are the second-best team in the Premier League performance-wise, edging out Chelsea by nine points in the table, with one game in hand.
In the reverse fixture in November, Chelsea tasted a 2-1 defeat at Etihad.
N’Golo Kante put the Blues ahead, but Manchester City completed a comeback victory through one goal apiece by Kevin de Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez.
It was a close game, though.
Manchester City only had 46.74% possession in that game, the lowest ever recorded by a team managed by Guardiola in 381 matches.
46.74 – Man City's possession figure of 46.74 today is the lowest recorded by a side managed by Pep Guardiola in any of his 381 top-flight matches in charge. Academic. #MCICHE
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 23, 2019
Opta may tip Manchester City to claim another victory against Chelsea, but they surely do not consider Christian Pulisic, Tammy Abraham, Ruben Loftus Cheek and N’Golo Kante’s comeback from injury, do they?
Regardless of Opta’s prediction, the game sadly won’t take place as the global health pandemic continues.