Opta predicts Chelsea are over five times less likely than Arsenal to win the Champions League

Add as preferred source on Google

It has been a mixed start for Chelsea in this season’s Champions League, where they are competing in this new format for the very first time.

The Blues have eight fixtures in the league phase of the Champions League, which has replaced the group stages before the traditional knockout rounds. So far, Enzo Maresca’s side have kicked off with a win and a defeat.

While Chelsea kickstarted their European campaign with a 3-1 away defeat to Bayern Munich, they responded on Tuesday night with a 1-0 home victory against Benfica.

Chelsea will bank around £50m just for competing in Europe this campaign, but supporters will be hoping for a deep run in the Champions League tournament. Last season, they proved they suit cup competitions by winning both the Club World Cup and Conference League.

• READ MORE: Steve McManaman reacts to Chelsea youngster Dastan Satpaev after his Champions League clash with Real Madrid

Chelsea rated as outsiders to win the Champions League

After the first two rounds of fixtures in this season’s Champions League, Opta’s Supercomputer has updated its predictions for the competition.

As you can see below, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side are now the favourites to win Europe’s elite club prize with an 18.09% chance. In contrast, Chelsea are over five times less likely to win the tournament with their 3.51% chance.

It feels like a suitable time to recall that Arsenal are still bidding to win the Champions League for the first time in their entire history.

Chelsea are the only London club to lift the Champions League prize, winning the trophy in 2012 and 2021. Even though Arsenal’s side have been much stronger than the Blues recently, history has to count for something.

Before the tournament started, Opta gave Chelsea a 7.0% chance of winning the Champions League, so it looks like they’ve already taken a backwards step.

Remaining fixtures in Champions League

There is still such a long way to go in this year’s Champions League because of the expanded version.

Last season, teams needed a minimum of 11 points to avoid elimination from the competition before the knockout rounds, so Chelsea may need a few more victories in their upcoming European fixtures.

• Chelsea vs Ajax (22 October)
• Qarabag vs Chelsea (5 November)
• Chelsea vs Barcelona (25 November)
• Atalanta vs Chelsea (9 December)
• Chelsea vs Pafos (21 January)
• Napoli vs Chelsea (28 January)

Jamie Carragher’s hot take on Chelsea before the season started was that they wouldn’t make it out of the league phase of the Champions League. Unless something goes drastically wrong, we’re optimistic they will collect enough points to at least reach the knockout play-offs. To reach the top eight and qualify straight for the last 16, it required a tally of 16 points last season.