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Why Paul Merson is still confident Chelsea qualify for the Champions League

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Forget beating Leeds, forget Liam Rosenior’s sacking. Chelsea have lost their last five Premier League matches without scoring, yet Paul Merson still thinks Champions League qualification is possible.

Newcastle, Everton, Man City, Man United, Brighton. Five games without a win, five games lost, five games without scoring a single goal. Chelsea’s worst league run since 1912 has ruined top-five hopes.

Calum McFarlane is back as interim manager and his tactical guile saw Chelsea produce a win against Leeds in the FA Cup, even if they rode their luck at times, and there were elements of gamesmanship.

We were too harsh on Poch!

Mauricio Pochettino's and Liam Rosenior's records at Chelsea
Credit: Ryan Pierse/Andrew Kearns – CameraSport via Getty Images

Perhaps not as far as controversial, but more street smart. The win gives Chelsea some momentum and now, they face Forest at Stamford Bridge on Monday night. Paul Merson has backed Chelsea to win.

Merson weighs up likelihood of Aston Villa scenario

Before Forest’s game at Chelsea, Vitor Pereira takes his side to Villa Park where they take on Unai Emery’s men in the Europa League semi-finals. Braga and Freiburg are doing battle in the other semi-final.

Of the four teams, Villa will fancy their chances. Especially, with Europa League expert Emery in charge. For Chelsea, it means Champions League football remains a possibility in the final four league games.

Manchester City FC v Arsenal FC - Premier League
Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images

If Villa win the Europa League, and finish fifth in the Premier League, then sixth becomes another spot in the Champions League. Merson thinks it is possible, predicting a 2-1 win for Chelsea on Sports Keeda.

“Chelsea reached the FA Cup final last weekend. If they go on and win that trophy, which is a big, massive ask, I think it counts as a huge achievement this season. If Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
3 Manchester UnitedManchester United34 17 10 7 60 46 14 61
4 LiverpoolLiverpool34 17 7 10 57 44 13 58
5 Aston VillaAston Villa34 17 7 10 47 42 5 58
6 BrightonBrighton34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 BournemouthBournemouth34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 ChelseaChelsea34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 BrentfordBrentford34 13 9 12 49 46 3 48
10 FulhamFulham34 14 6 14 44 46 -2 48
11 EvertonEverton34 13 8 13 41 41 0 47
12 SunderlandSunderland34 12 10 12 36 45 -9 46

“Which is likely, Chelsea can still play Champions League football because they are only two points behind Brighton in sixth-place. I don’t think Forest will be relegated, but I think they will lose this game.”

Chelsea’s injury news ahead of Nottingham Forest clash

Having watched his Chelsea side keep a clean sheet against Leeds, something which Liam Rosenior only managed four times in his 23 games as Blues manager, McFarlane will be tempted to keep the same XI.

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But Cole Palmer will have had a week’s training under his belt and could be in line to start again. Reece James remains a doubt, while Levi Colwill, Jamie Gittens, Filip Jorgensen and Estevao remain sidelined.

Chelsea will be hoping for a Villa win on Thursday evening, for two reasons. One, it reduces momentum among those at the City Ground and two, it sees Villa edge closer to the Europa League title.